November 2021 Sales Report for Sealed and Graded Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) Games
November 2021 Sales Report for Sealed and Graded Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) Games
This exclusive market report tracks 800+ sealed and graded NES titles in 22 markets over 34 months and 4,359 transactions. It includes data and rankings regarding both game scarcity and box condition.
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⏰ Reading Time: 9 minutes
📕 Section: Games
Introduction
This report analyzes over 800 games released for the Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) by determining how many times since 2019 a sealed and graded copy of each of these titles either entered a public market and was sold or entered a public market in which it remains available. The intent of this report is to help gamers who are in the sealed-and-graded video game market to make smarter game-collecting decisions.
While this report does not run through the full box-and-seal condition of every sealed-and-graded NES game whose sale or pending sale it catalogues, it does detail how many copies of each game are in a “9.0” or better box condition on the WATA grading scale (or the equivalent, a “75+” or better condition, on the VGA grading scale; these figures represent the lowest end of the “near-mint” category for each grading house).
While the scope of this report—which covers nearly 4,500 transactions—is too broad for seal conditions to be cross-indexed with box conditions, across thousands of transactions RETRO has discovered that relatively few seals in the sealed-and-graded video game market are in worse than “B+” (“average”) condition, so while low-quality seals on occasion appear in this submarket, it’s rare enough that knowing the condition of a sealed box usually gives one enormous insight into the probable value of a given game.
{Note: Any collector who decides to seek out a particular game after studying the rarity and box-condition data below can review the 22 markets covered by this report—which sell well over 95% of the publicly sold sealed-and-graded games in the United States—to get seal data.}
An Important Note About the Difference Between the “Sealed” and “Complete-in-Box” (CIB) NES Markets
If the rankings below focused on “complete-in-box” (CIB) games rather than sealed games, they’d look quite different—and the way in which they would look different is important to discuss.
CIB games (defined here) have no proven or identifiable market value in the medium- or long term, so the market for CIB games is largely focused on exploiting potential buyers’ nostalgia for the past. What this means is that the most readily available NES games in the CIB market are almost exclusively well-known, highly successful NES titles. If there’s a game you remember from your childhood that your best friends from that era also remember, chances are it’s easily acquired in CIB format—and you should not pay a premium to acquire it as a CIB title (unless you’re particularly focused on the condition of the box and its contents; if you are, CIB games can be very expensive).
The sealed-and-graded video game market is different. Rankings of the most readily available games in this market are topped by three very different types of games: (1) games of varying quality that are associated with a licensed property, (2) games that didn’t sell at the time they were released and remain not particularly well-regarded, and (3) games that are not associated with a licensed property and are well-regarded.
Because sealed-and-graded video game collectors are much more likely to be investors, resellers, or speculators than simply nostalgic gamers, they hedge their bets by looking for games with a built-in audience; this often means games tied to established brands.
But the sealed-and-graded video game market is also flooded with games that are just bad. This means they didn’t sell well at the time of their release, usually (if not always) for good reason. Many unopened (sealed) copies of such games get sent in for grading.
Finally, there are games that we might call badass. Collectors and investors alike revere these games not because they are linked to a licensed property or simply because they sold well at the time of their release, but because they’re well regarded as video games.
“Brand” Games: Some Examples
Legacy Franchise Games: Super Mario, Legend of Zelda, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear, Donkey Kong, Metroid, Ninja Gaiden, Double Dragon, Castlevania, Mega Man, any titles featuring characters from these franchises
Superhero Games: Marvel, DC
Fandom Games: Star Trek games, Star Wars games, Disney games, M.C. Kids (a McDonald’s tie-in game), Spot: The Video Game (a PepsiCo tie-in game)
Movie Tie-in Games: Back to the Future, Jaws, Friday the 13th, RoboCop, Platoon, Mission Impossible, Who Framed Roger Rabbit?, Top Gun, Willow, The Untouchables
Comic Book Games: Dick Tracy (also a movie tie-in game), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (also a TV tie-in game and now a legacy franchise game)
TV Tie-in Games: The Simpsons, Knight Rider, The Three Stooges, Sesame Street, MTV’s Remote Control, Jeopardy, Wheel of Fortune, Win Lose or Draw, Airwolf
Professional Sports Games: licensed MLB, NBA, NFL, and WWF games
“Bad” Games: Some Examples
The Adventures of Bayou Billy
Bandai Golf: Challenge Pebble Beach
Cybernoid: The Fighting Machine
Dash Galaxy in the Alien Asylum
Destination Earthstar
Flight of the Intruder
Gotcha! The Sport!
Impossible Mission II
Milon’s Secret Castle
NES Play Action Football
Operation Wolf
Silent Service
Star Voyager
Taboo: The Sixth Sense
{Note: The games in this category aren’t uniformly bad, though none are better than middling. What’s notable about them is that they had a bad run on the video game market and never got enough critical praise to change their fortunes—in most cases for good reason. You likely shouldn’t purchase a game in this category unless you’re getting a very, very good deal on it.}
“Badass” Games: Some Examples
Adventure Island (series)
Battletoads (series)
Bionic Commando
Guerilla War
Ice Hockey
Jackal
Kirby’s Adventure
Section Z
Shadowgate
Star Tropics (series)
Super Spike V’Ball
Tetris (series)
{Note: Some of the games in this category spawned series, but these were short-lived—and did not become “legacy franchises” of the sort listed above. In most cases, they’re NES-only series. Even Tetris fizzled out quickly; Tetris 2 was panned by critics, and didn’t sell especially well.}
Other Notable Trends
Collecting Trends
“Black Box” Games: Some sealed-and-graded video game collectors try to collect the first 30 Nintendo games, all of which were released in black boxes. Notably accessible (but highly valued) “black box” games include Pinball, Kung Fu, Golf, and Excitebike.
“Bundled” Games: Some games came bundled with the NES console; while these may be decent games, their ready availability on the market is largely determined by how many gamers purchased them semi-voluntarily (leading to many never opening them). Dragon Warrior and Duck Hunt are two notable examples of this.
eBay Sales Trends
Sealed and Graded NES Game Prices on eBay
(completed sales in the prior 90 days on eBay, shipping not included, as of September 10, 2021)
$1 to $1,000: 67 °
$1,001 to $2,000: 22
$2,001 to $3,000: 11
$3,001 to $4,000: 5
$4,001 to $5,000: 2
$5,001 to $6,000: 1
$6,001 to $7,000: 2
$7,001 to $8,000: 1
$8,001 to $9,000: 1
$9,001 to $10,000: 0
$10,000+: 1
° $1 to $250: 17; $250.01 to $500: 24; $500.01 to $750: 19; $750.01 to $1,000: 7.
{Note: It’s worth looking at the information above and considering that Goldin Auctions, part of a conglomerate of grading and auction companies that has lately been accused of market manipulation, launched its video game auctions in September with a minimum bid for all items of $1,000—a clear attempt to push the market upward. While the games at Goldin admittedly are higher-end items, the use of a four-figure minimum bid nevertheless signals a concerted effort to eliminate the bustling three-figure sealed-and-graded market. Indeed, this market has been so healthy that the only option for would-be market manipulators is to kill it administratively, via minimum bids at auction houses that aim to create an expectation of four-figure sales even on sites like eBay. Note that the two-figure—not three-figure—market for sealed-and-graded NES games was healthy in 2019 and 2020, per Heritage Auctions data, but was dead by the start of 2021, with just 4 sealed-and-graded NES titles selling for <$100 at Heritage this year.}
Methodology
No CIB games are considered.
No “box-only” (often called “display-only”) transactions are considered.
No “repro” (reproduction games) are considered.
A very small number of NES-licensed “PAL”-region (Europe- and Australia-only) games are listed here; please research any relevant state and federal laws to determine if these titles can be legally sold in the United States.
No “loose cart” (cartridge-only) transactions are considered.
No distinction is made between earlier and later box releases, or box “errors” or “variants.” Though these certainly exist for some titles and do affect market value, the focus here is on the availability of game titles, rather than title variants.
Because the focus here is on title availability, a game that reappears in a public market a second or subsequent time during the period of review is counted each time it appears in a market, rather than just once.
Numbers in parentheses indicate the number of copies of a game that appeared in the 22 surveyed markets with a box condition of “9.0” or higher (on the WATA scale) or “75+” or higher (on the VGA scale). These grades are considered roughly equivalent.
As you review the report below, please keep in mind that it’s never a good idea to invest in any product or collectible beyond your financial means. RETRO discourages irresponsible market speculation—and offers this report in significant part to reduce the occurrence of such speculation. As a general rule, unless one is extremely fond of a video game and wants to “slab” it for enjoyment purposes, one wouldn’t want to—for investment purposes—buy any of the games on the first two lists below. These games are regularly available, and are expected to continue to be regularly available for some time to come. This means they will be near-ubiquitous on the graded-game market at any time in the future you may try to sell them. While many of these NES games are now selling for thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars, and therefore could offer an opportunity for a lucrative short-term flip, the medium- and long-term market prospects for the Top 50 most widely available games are wholly speculative.
For all the foregoing reasons, the best collecting strategy is to only buy games you can afford and that you’d be willing to live with the rest of your life—as you may well do so.
{Note: The fact that Intellivision and Atari 2600 games aren’t worth nearly as much as NES games tells us that as generations of collectors age, certain markets lose their luster. Eventually those of us who value NES games will make up only a minuscule percentage of the total game-collecting population. In other words, potential buyers get old and die; one mustn’t forget that.}
Preamble
Below, 810 Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) games are ranked by scarcity and box condition across 4,359 transactions. The entry for each game is followed by the number of copies known to have appeared since January 2019 in the 22 public markets listed below, which combined account for more than 95% of the public sales of sealed and graded games in the United States. The number in parentheses is the number of copies on the public market in a “9.0” or better box condition (on the WATA scale) or an “75+” or better condition (on the VGA scale). If there is no parenthetical number after a title, there is no sign of copies of that game in a “9.0”/“75+” or better condition.
Markets Reviewed (22)
Amazon: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Brian’s Toys: transactions through October 25, 2021.
CertifiedLink: transactions through October 19, 2021.
ComicConnect: transactions through October 31, 2021.
Dave and Adam’s Card World: transactions through October 25, 2021.
EBay: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Etsy: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Evolve Comics & Collectibles: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Goldin Auctions: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Hake’s: transactions through November 4, 2021.
Heritage Auctions: transactions through October 31, 2021.
Instagram (Game Mine): transactions through October 25, 2021.
Instagram (Playcadia): transactions through October 25, 2021.
Mercari: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Metropolis Comics: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Prime City Comics: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Pristine Auction: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Reece’s Rare Comics: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Retro Raven Games: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Squeaks Game World: transactions through October 25, 2021.
Video Game Sage: transactions through October 25, 2021.
WalMart (QFH): transactions through October 25, 2021.
The Top 25 Most Available Sealed/Graded NES Games
(including all known publicly for-sale or sold copies since 2019, with scarcity rank preceding each game and the number of copies in a “9.0”/“75+” or better condition in parentheses)